Byrnes has a bruised hand, Macha would like to get him in as part of a general "lineup shakeup," but he can't, because almost the entire bench is injured.

Yeah . . . as much as I hate to admit it, you're right Jayho.

So I've been running some numbers, and haven't come up with anything too definitive, but a trend is developing, showing that the higher proportion of a team's OPS comes from AVG (AVG/OPS), the more games they will win in relation to their Pythagorean Winning %.

Unfortunately, this site can't host its own pictures, so I can't show the graph I came up with. While it definitely has a number of significant outliers, I can say with confidence that batting average itself, seperated from OBP and SLG, does seem to matter in winning the close games.

I'll keep working on it and hoepfully can come up with some more significant data.
I'll keep you posted.

**********************

I'd just like to point out that Mark Kotsay saw 19 pitches in both Friday and Sunday's games (he had Saturday off) in 2 PAs Friday and 4 Sunday, a total of 6.333 pitches per PA, damn good (5 P/PA without his monumental 13 pitch PA to lead off Friday, still top notch). This is what we got him for, lets keep an eye on this, see if he can keep it up.

That was a great at bat by Ruby today. Three consecutive homeruns, pulled just foul . . . realized he wasn't going to get it timed right that way, so he knocked the next one to left field, Long Dong Silver . . . he was still 0-3 with a strikeout in his other ABs, so lets not get too optimistic.

Like I was saying the other day, a rejuvinated Scotbielric Hatterazrros would do wonders for our offense and the fact that he hit two dongs in his nine at bats is promising.

We have time to wait for them to come around, its okay . . . but in 2-3 weeks, if they don't pull it together, either Johnson or Koonce is going to have to be tried out before dealing for Delgado (or someone somewhat more affordable but in a similar situation) at the deadline.

When you have a guy who is only 1 year off winning a Cy Young, you give him the chance to bring it back after a bad start.

That being said, I'm worried. Do you notice whats going on? Good game the first time against a team, then he gets lit up the second time he faces them. Is he still tipping his pitches and the Halos just hadn't figured it out the first time around? Perhaps he's becoming too predictable. Damian Miller wasn't working with a pitcher like him in Chicago or Arizona (Unit, Wood, Prior, Schilling, Zambrano, Clement - - those are some damn good fastballs) with a fastball that would barely impress a good high school program. That could be a problem . . . though Redman has gotten the job done and he's a soft tosser, like Barry.

His k/9 rate is down again this year, though his walk rate has improved somewhat, maybe he's worrying too much about walking guys and grooving it when he gets behind in the count.

	k/9	bb/9
01	8.61	3.36
02	7.14	3.07
03	5.67	3.42
04	5.48	3.13

Whatever it is, Zito has been knocked around to the tune of a .862 OPS against.

OK, so, guys, I've figured something out, the starters need to start pitching worse. Today and yesterday, Huddy and Mulder pitched fine, but not great. We won. Monday and Tuesday, Redman and Harden were lights out, we lost.

The answer, a good but not great pitching performance will inspire the offense to score the runs needed to win, because they know they're in the game but they won't be complacent with the dominant staff.

*********

Okay, that being said, Scotbielric Hatterazrros, our three headed first base/dh type (it just doesn't have the same ring as Scottmaedo Hattesaenz), has been making positive contributions that last couple of days (5-14 with 3 walks). If we can get him going to the tune of .260-.270 with respectable pop, our offensive woes will be a non-issue . . . until we swing a deal for Carlos Delgado on July 26.

Debunking some doom and gloomers and worrying about Pedro . . .

Bobby Crosby is only batting .204, while Miggy is batting .327 . . . oh know, the season is lost, Crosby is going to follow Ortiz to Japan!

	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	E
Tejada	.202	.240	.333	2	10	4
Crosby	.204	.246	.279	2	9	2

Thats through 99 ABs for Miggy and 61 for Crosby.

Oddly similar, no?

Now, on to Pedro:

So far this year, he's been pretty solid, one bad game, but, otherwise, pretty good, to the tune of a 3.86 era.

He had a solid game tonight, too. 7 innings, 7 baserunners, 1 earned run.

But there's something lurking beneath the surface there.

GB/FB
Tonight: 1/2
Season: 1/1
Career: 1.15/1

His three best seasons (in terms of era, minimum 20 starts)
'97: 1.41/1
'99: 1.3/1
'00: 1.25/1

While Pedro is not a ground ball pitcher, the more he gets it down, the better he does and he has not been getting it down this season.

Now, keep in mind, his 4th best season showed an era of something like 2.2 and it hasn't topped 3.00 since 1996, so, even if this does represent a falloff, he has a ways to go before he becomes mortal. We're also only 4 starts into the season, so lets not get too excited.

My prediction, Pedro will still be pretty good.

Thoughts during the game . . .
So in the bottom of the third, Barry was baffling Vlad Guerrero, up, down, in, out, keeping him thoroughly confused, before jamming him for a soft line drive to Crosby.
Then Garret Anderson came up and knocked the first pitch into center field to bring in a run.
That got me theorizing that going up ready to jump on the first straight ball Barry throws you is the way to go. The stats back that up.
In his three years from 01-03 opponents hit:

	Overall	Pitches 1,2	Pitches 3+
Batting Avg	.222	.305	.192
Slugging	.336	.463	.290

When he's mixing his pitches, he is nearly unhittable . . . the question is, how does he make sure he gets the opportunity to mix those pitches up, since, by itself, his fastball is very hittable?

McGwire Update
Mac threw out the openning pitch yesterday in St. Louis, his first public appearance at any stadium since he retired. A crowd of 46,471 celebrated his appearance with Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen, who combined for three home runs.

Sadly, he reminded us that he didn't leave his heart in the (well, a) city by the bay. "It was pretty awesome," McGwire said. "I tell people all the time, this is the best baseball city in the country. There's no other better fans in the country that appreciate their baseball, and that's the biggest reason why I stayed here." Hopefully, he'll come out in June for the 1989 World Series reunion. On a lighter note, it looks like he's working again: USA Today - ST. LOUIS -- The 30-second commercial shows him chomping into a big burger. "They call him 'Big Mac,' and guess what his favorite hamburger is: the Hardee's half-pound Thickburger," the announcer says. "Because some guys don't like eating a half pound of bread to get a half pound of meat."

AP - ST. LOUIS -- Back at Busch Stadium for the first time since retiring, Mark McGwire had little to say about steroids in baseball.

"Well, I'm really not in touch with any of that stuff because I usually hear it from friends and stuff, and I tell them I don't want to really hear about any of that stuff," McGwire said Saturday. "I don't really have any opinion on any of that stuff. It's just very unfortunate."

"I'm good to my word," he said. "It's been three years now and I'm not getting any younger. I'm really enjoying what I'm doing right now, being a father."

Since he retired, McGwire hasn't watched a major league game in its entirety. He's busied himself raising his two young sons, 18-month-old Max and 3-month-old Mason.

"I've moved on and I'm enjoying life," McGwire said.

This is really about the worst way to lose a game. Defense really cost us big time, with Mulders "error" followed by Chavy's throwing error. Take those out and its a completely different game. The infield defense . . . everyone except Crosby . . . has cost us quite a bit this season. Its really frustrating.

I don't have stats yet to back this up, but Scooter's defense seems positively Jeteresque . . . making the routine look spectacular. Made an incredible web gem friday, which Wash said was a bonehead play. Its the same kind of play as the one he made last Sunday to cost us the game. He badly needs to learn when to rush and when he has time to set and throw. That has already cost us one game this season.

Chavy has generally been good, but he hasn't seemed quite himeself . . . the season's early and I'm not worried, but I do expect more from him.

I'm not seeing the huge upgrade Karros was reported to be at first. He was actually only about average last year, after being well above average in the past. Is he getting old and we should expect further declines or will he return to form? Probably the former. The sooner we get Johnson up, the better.

Speaking of good 'ol Danny boy, he's tearing up AAA, to the tune of a .483 ba with 5 jacks through 7 games and a spectacular 5:2 bb:k rate. If he continues his hot hitting in Sacto, expect to see him sooner rather than later. Koonce is injured, on the DL, btw, severely damaging any shot he ever had at sticking with the big league squad. LA, here he comes!

Just came across another blog . . . its not really my flavor, more of the talk radio variety than what I specialize in . . . ie, all that is good and pure in the game of baseball, the beauty that is 90 feet, green grass, the roar of the crowds, hotdogs with too much ketchup, the colors green and gold, hustling on routine grounders, and double headers every sunday.

But check it out, he's got some interesting insight.

J-Dizzle just hit another Jackaroo, bringing him to 4 in 7+ games.
correction: its now 5 in 8 games

I'd think its fairly safe to say, he won't be the worst hitting outfielder in the game this year.

So what have we learned in the first week?
Well, either we've seen a tremendous shift in power or else you shouldn't pay attention to what happens in the first week. Of the six divisions, only 1 is led by the team who won that division last year (the West, our beloved A's) and 3 are led by the team that finished fifth (NL West, NL Central, AL Central, SD, Cin, Det). Here's my bold prediction, at least 2 of these three teams won't win their division. I'd give San Diego about a 2/5 shot at the NL West and Detroit at 1/5 shot at the AL Central with Cincinatti having about a 2/5 chance of finishing 3rd in their Division.

But what about the A's?
Well, lets look back at those preseason questions.
Obviously, we don't have enough info about Redman or Harden.

Rhodes is off to a great start. 4 saves in 5 chances? Thats fine when you consider that the one blown save wasn't really his fault (covered below). He doesn't have his velocity back, though, hitting about 92 instead of 95, so this continues to bear watching.

Hatty looks like he may have brought his walking stick back to the ball park, leaving his bat at home. Thats a really good idea for him, but it may be too early to look for trends.

Scutaro has been fun and productive, though his D has been less than perfect . . . come on Wash, work your magic! Totally too early to tell what will happen here.

Hmm . . . starting to notice a trend . . . that being, its too early to start looking for trends . . . I think I'll stop now.

Okay, so lets hear all of those doom and gloomers talk about how our season is lost because Rhodes can't cut it. That's crap, he saved the game, the defense just didn't see it that way.

Dan Wilson did not single to get the rally going, that was an error on Karros, it was a slow, one hopper, which beat Wilson easily. Scutaro also messed up on the play. He should have realized that Dan Wilson is a catcher and that he had plenty of time to plant and make a strong throw. He didn't, he bounced it, Karros dropped the easy out, and Wilson was on.

Two batters later, after Bloomquist had singled McCracken (who was running for Wilson) to third, with Ichiro batting, the hit and run was put on. I can't say if Scutaro made the mistake himself or if it was a bad call from the dugout, but he was headed to second to cover, with Bloomquist running. Ichiro's ground ball was hit to exactly where Scutaro had been positioned. It was hit hard enough that, even with Ichiro's speed, it should have been a double play to end the game.

Even without the double play, Boone's ground out two batters later ends the game. Both plays in question merely required Scutaro to do the fundamentally "right" thing and we would have won the game.

It happens, no big deal . . . but lets realize its not Rhodes' fault.

Huddy was seriously money today. Truly awesome.
Complete game, only having to face 30 batters, and getting through them on just 86 pitches. Its the best kind of game to pitch, really. Strikeouts, aside from being fascist, are overrated. When a player is among the best pitchers in the game, he shouldn't be trying to go for strikeouts. It'll run up his pitch count and get him out of the game too soon. This is what won Roy Halladay the Cy last year and what had Mulder as, arguably, the front runner before he got injured. A guy like Pedro can dominate, but he can only do it for 6-7 innings. Averaging 15.5 pitches per inning, Pedro will reach the hundred pitch mark in the middle of the 7th inning. At 13.6, Halladay will get a full inning deeper before reaching that milestone. That one inning will cost a team (on average) about a third a run each game. This is a pretty significant amount, about 10 runs over the course of the season. If Pedro had been able to pitch that one extra inning/game, that alone could have been expected to win the Sox an extra game last season.
So, strikeouts are overrated, they are nice to look at, but, ultimately (except for timely Ks), they hurt your team. Its great to see Huddy doing a nice Mulder impersonation.

Strikeouts might be sexier, but groundballs are what will really keep you warm at night. Isn't that right Jayho, you old married fool?

Note: Sorry for the lack of posts, the system has been having problems.

2-1 Loss . . . good, this is the way A's games are supposed to be played.

I'm concerned about the 4 walks Zito posted. You should never read too much into one game, but this has always been a problem for him. It has been discussed widely, but the declining k/bb rate he has been showing is usually a good indicator of future decreases in success. His rate has dropped every year he has been in the bigs.

Now, I love stats, but they don't tell you everything. Some people, Zito definitely included, succeed differently than others. The high flyball totals Zito allows have traditionally been considered a precursor to high eras. Zito is different

Is he different in this respect to? Well, here's hoping . . . but it really might not be in the best interest of the A's to wait around and find out. If Harden develops as we hope, trading Zito may quickly become a no-brainer.

Interesting point over at Athletics Nation about the possibility that Mulder having the radar gun turned off at the coliseum is the cause of his fairly extreme home-road splits, based on Eric Byrnes' explanation of how he caught up to the fastball in winning game 1. Check it out.

So, Neyer's picks are all the talk of Oakland. Chavy as MVP, Huddy as Cy, Crosby as ROY, and the A's as World Series Champions. Wow, now that's optimism.

First of all, let me say, even if we consider each of those picks to be "the favorite," there is no way that all four are happening. Or at least no way all of the first three do. Its just not going to happen, I'm sorry.

But as far as each of the individual picks, well, that's more interesting.

Chavy . . .
Why yes?
Because he's the star of the offense, because he's the best defensive player who'll be in the running, because he's someone new in the race. Because he's really friggin good.
Why no?
The coliseum will depress his stats, because even with the best case scenario, he still won't do much against lefties, because no one believes the MVP of the A's isn't one of the Big Three.
Bottom line . . .
sure, he could do it. A-Rod, Giambi, Manny, Nomar, et al suffer from having too many great teammates. Vlad, however, will be in a great position to grab the award if the Halos are contenders and he performs like Vlad. Beltran too is in a prime position if he can finally lead the Royals back to the playoffs. It really isn't about talent (though, believe me, they have plenty), its about the position they are in. If the Halos come up, Vlad is what changed. If the Royals come up, well, who has the average fan, much less the average sports writer, heard of besides Beltran? That's the way to be the sexy pick for MVP, to have a great story, much more so than great stats. (Hello Ichiro and Miggy, I'm talking to you)
I'd have to say the five favorites would be Chavy, Beltran, Vlad, A-Rod, and, hmm, lets say Shannon Stewart . . . no, just kidding, how about, dare I say it, Jermaine Dye? Okay, that's being a tad too optimistic . . . how about Vernon Wells? That's right, no BoSox, though I guarantee a Bean Towner will finish in the top 5, he just won't win.

Huddy . . .
Why yes?
Because he's been the best pitcher not named Pedro in the AL the last three years, because he might get lucky and the team might get him some Ws, because there's no one really better and its getting to be his turn.
Why no?
Because Mulder will win it, he'll win more games because he'll pitch deeper into games, and he'll lead the majors in complete games, which always looks cool, because he might not get lucky and only win 16 games , because he doesn't strike out enough guys or dominate any particular category.
Bottom Line . . .
he's always in contention, but I doubt he'll win it, I think Mulder will be more to the voters' liking if they choose to go with an Oaklander. There are just too many fairly evenly qualified candidates, but he's definitely up there.

Bobby C . . .
Why yes?
because, I dunno, he's talented and he might just be ready.
Why no?
because, most rookies aren't ready and, unless they're Japanese and pushing 30, most can't miss ROY candidates miss for the first couple years.
Bottom line . . .
With the Rookie of the Year voting, its always just shooting darts.


World Championship . . .
Hmm . . . I think I'll tackle this one a little later. Obviously, as any good A's fan would, I have no doubt we're going to win it all and I could use the stats that worked to show exactly why the A's will win the Championship . . . but the reasons are all pretty meaningless at this point.

Here are my picks, though:
Oakland, Kansas City, New York
Boston - WC
San Diego, Chicago, Philadelphia
Houston - WC
Division Series
Oakland beats Boston in 4
New York beats KC in 3
Houston beats Philly in 5
Chicago beats SD in 4
LCS
Oakland beats NY in 5
Chicago beats Houston in 7
World Series
Oakland beats Chicago in 7

You read it here . . .

Tune in? What is this crap, Jayho? Why weren't you at the game?

Great game.
J-Dizzle is looking great. He has a really confident swagger up there, he's driving the ball like he did his first season here. Crosby looked overmatched . . . but he's got to be suffering from some crazy nerves after being handed the starting SS gig, so we'll have to give him time. Huddy wasn't getting the ball down . . . but if thats a "bad" start for him this year, we might as well engrave the Cy tomorrow.
Great move by Macha with the BillyMac-Byrnes switch . . . I had almost forgot what real managing looked like after all those years of Art Howe.
My concerns about A-Rhod are still there. He was mostly around 90-92 with his fastball, which is not fast enough. We need him to bring the 94-95 gas if he's going to dominate.

President Bush will be in a key swing state to throw out the first ball at the St. Louis Cardinals vs. Brewers game at Busch Stadium. Bush, a baseball fanatic and former partner in the Texas Rangers team, will get a Cardinals jersey with the number 43 on it. The AP also reports that fans were advised to get to the stadium four hours early because of security delays.

Those four hours should really endear him to Missouri voters.
(Thanks to Washington Wrap)

note: I'm not criticizing Dubaya (it may be the first time). I'm just musing on the idea that him throwing out the first pitch will stick with voters more than the four hours they had to wait in line to see it or the traffic mess that the city undoubtedly had to endure.

Opening day, here it is (even if four teams have already played a total of four games - it was just that one little time in Japan, and that don't count . . . thanks God, I knew you'd understand).
I've been looking forward to this for about 7 months now.
A new season is upon us and with it brings the launch of (b)A's(eball).blogspot.com - - A new blog dedicated to the beauty that is nine innings between those two chalk lines, the perfection of ninety feet, pitcher's duels, late inning comebacks, the elimination of the save, thirty year old rookies who hung around, grizzled vets trying to see one last summer, cheering for the home team no matter how far they might be down, underdogs, anybody but the Yankees, and double-headers every Sunday. In short, baseball the way it was meant to be played, as represented by the Oakland Athletics.

Here I sit, on my lunch break at work, wearing my Oakland A's jersey, my stadium blanket and cap sitting in the corner of my cubicle, waiting, in eager anticipation to be flung to the ground after Huddy induces a key double play. My ticket, sitting folded in my back pocket, hoping that it only relegates me to section 320 for the first couple of innings.

Tonight's game features two teams from the opposite ends of the spectrum. The pitching rich, Oakland A's begin the season, tonight, in search of their fifth consecutive playoff spot, despite having a smaller payroll over those four years than the Rangers promised to Alex Rodriguez. The Rangers, despite their big dollar free agents like Alex Rodriguez and Chan Ho Park, along with one of the strongest offenses in the game, have failed to reach the post season for almost a decade.

While Park's contract is certainly sitting their as an enormous albatross (and one that I criticized from the beginning . . . his stats away from Dodger's Stadium were terrible), can we really say that they were only one star pitcher away from contention . . . or even being league average?

Well, in one respect, they were never actually all that bad of a team, their record just suffered because they were playing in what was, top to bottom, the toughest division in the game. Last season, they played exactly .500 ball against the rest of the American League. The problem, as I see it, is that they spent too much money on offense. Outside of Park, all of their money went to the offense. Just like the Pythagorean method of determining W-L record shows, the more one sided your team is, the less utility each additional run scored/prevented provides. The sixth run is much more valuable than the eighth run.

Uh oh . . . so, should this be cause for concern with the A's? Perhaps . . . but the offense has not been nearly as bad as is the common belief. Last year we scored 768 runs. The average AL team scored 788, but when you take into consideration the coliseum as a pitchers park, we're probably right around average offensively, so its not too dangerous of a situation. Beyond that, as far as moderately priced veterans go, you get more bang for your buck spending 3-4 mil on a pitcher than a batter. The batter probably isn't much better than the player currently stashed in AAA or wasting away on someone else's trash heap and can be had for around the league minimum. While bargains can be found on the mound, they are nowhere near as common as hitters.

Its fun to see where an undirected mind will take you. I started writing this post with no specific plan on what I wanted to talk about . . . so hopefully its not too worthless.

I hope you will frequent this site. I plan on discussing the issues of the day, whatever statistical ruminations cross my mind, good baseball books, and the essence of goodness that is the A's.

2004 Oakland A's Preview
Part 1

2000 - Great season, postseason heartbreak
2001 - Great season, postseason heartbreak
2002 - Great season, postseason heartbreak
2003 - Great season, postseason heartbreak
2004 - ?????, ?????

Well, honestly, its about time that we had some bad luck in the regular season. Huddy and/or Zito are about due for an injury, Beane is due for an offseason veteran pitcher acquisition not working out his first year with the team before we let him go and watch him implode with someone who overpaid for him, the team is well overdue for a young pitcher not working out . . . .

But karma may have already paid us back for that good luck with Loopy Long in the outfield, Mini G not sliding, and, well, everything that could have possibly gone wrong last year. So, who knows?

We're also about due for a stud hitting prospect to stick with the team for more than about a month and a half.

This team is loaded with questions: Will Redman be the 2003 postseason Redman or the regular season Redman? Will Harden be Ace #4, or spend the season in Sacramento trying to find the strikezone? Will Rhodes get his fastball back or be effective on consecutive nights? Can we continue to get by with an average hitting catcher as our first sacker? Will anyone be able to play second? Will Chavy learn to hit lefties? Will the addition of anybody new in the outfield be enough to offset offensive losses at catcher and shortstop? Will Mongo regain the power stroke he displayed briefly each season in Arizona before the inevitable injuries prevailed? Can we score enough runs to compete?

Answers:
#1 (Redman) - I've got to say, his injury history combined with last season's terrible overuse is troubling. I have my suspicions that he will either be fine or not, which is really the ideal situation. It doesn't get much worse than having a guy struggling to stay in the rotation. Between Duke (if he's still around), Blanton, Wood, we've got three solid prospects who could be ready to step in and Yarnall, Rheineker, or Hiljus could be good enough as a spot #5 as long as Harden is getting it done as the #4.

But what if he stays healthy? Despite his strong overall numbers, his hr and bb rates dropped somewhat last year, while his k rate improved dramatically, leading to a small overall k/bb improvement, which represented consecutive years of improvement, always a good sign. Batters hit .272 on balls in play, an improvement from the .287 he posted in '02, .308 in '01, and .313 in '00. Its been a great trend, but its one that most Sabermetricians believe is based much more on luck than talent.

The last two years he average about a VORP of 36. He could repeat that but I think his PECOTA VORP of 21.9 is probably more accurate, which would basically just replace Lilly's production, though probably with a bit more consistency.

#2 (Harden) - This kid is smart and has incredible stuff. He also has trouble throwing strikes. PECOTA, if you assume he'll pitch the whole season (which they don't) has him with of a projected VORP of about 30. I think this is low. He'll have his struggles but, right around the All Star break he'll turn it on, and make Beane seriously consider trading Zito. All told, he'll shave about 15 runs off of last year's #5 starters.

#3 (Rhodes) - He has been incredible through '02, but he hasn't been throwing hard this spring. His k rate dropped, his bb and hr rates increased, but those can mostly be attributed to injuries. Also promising is that his average allowed on balls in play increased dramatically, going from .258 in '02 to .310 last year. Meaning. really, really bad luck. Everything from last year indicates a return to form . . . but he hasn't looked good this spring, so this remains a huge question mark. He won't match Foulke's '03 VORP of 36.1, he probably can't help but exceed last year's VORP of 9.2, but where he falls in the middle is anyone's guess. If things fall right, he could be at about 30, and lead the league in saves, if they don't 15 is reasonable, leaving us with 3 lefty setup men.

#4 (Hatteberg) - I was all ready to write, "he's not going anywhere and he's not getting any better," but then I looked at the stats and remembered how good he was in '02 when you look at peripheral stats. In '03 his k/bb was basically the same, though his bb rate dropped, along with his k rate. What's interesting is his doubles, which increased by over 50% - a good indicator of future jacks. In a neutral park last year, he'd have posted an OPS of .770, not bad, though 100 points less than his EQOPS from '02. He's getting old, though, so I don't think a repeat of '02 is reasonable. I say 1b (between him and Karros) seeing about a 20 run increase this year, (which would still be about 10 runs worse than his '02 season).

#5 (Second Base) – Well, what the heck is going to happen here? Beane publicly says that Heart Ellis will most likely be out more than the 8 weeks that was originally predicted, but that he could still return this season. Gammons says he’s done for the year. The idea that makes the most sense to me is that Beane just doesn’t want to admit to needing a new 2b while he’s trying to trade for one.

That being said, unless the ‘xpos are already giving up on this season and hand us Vidro, I don’t think we should make a move. Why rush? We might not need it, I say we should find out first. I believe we should give German and Scutaro a chance to win the job first. Neither one is great defensively but there is almost no chance that either wouldn’t represent an offensive improvement over Ellis in ’03 who posted an OPS+ of 86, though he was sixth on the team in Win Shares (thanks mostly to his stellar D) and of the top 5, only Chavy and Huddy remain on the team. This is a little misleading, however. Playing full time, you can’t really help but accumulate 4-5 defensive win shares as a 2nd baseman. Alfonso Soriano, somehow managed to garner 6.67. We can safely assume that the 2nd base position will see a defensive win share drop of about 4, with some offensive improvements. Meaning, without a significant trade, the loss of Ellis would cost us about 1 game over the course of the season.

Clearly, I think we can wait, give German and Scutaro a chance to show the have what it takes. If they flop, it’ll probably only cost us about a game in the standings between now and July, at which point we could trade for Jose Vidro.

#6 (Chavy) – Will he learn to hit lefties? Well, some believe that lefties with as extreme of splits as Chavy has are just unlucky. Some disagree and believe that is actually a matter of skill.

Well, frankly, I don’t know. But I have an alternate hypothesis. Chavy is said to sometimes lacks self confidence, which can tremendously affect his play. Maybe its not that he can’t hit lefties, its that everyone tells him that he can’t hit lefties, he gets frustrated, he starts trying to hard, and we create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

That being said, his split is really something. Neyer wrote an article on it not too long ago so I don’t want to repeat too much. I think the answer is pretty simple, though. Recruit local high school and college lefties to come and throw batting practice to him daily. It’ll take time, but he can get used to it.

His OPS split has shrunk each of the last two years, by a very significant 50 points last year, so I’m optimistic. If we see the split shrink another 50 points and he puts up the same numbers against righties, his overall OPS will reach .900 and he’ll be a top MVP candidate.

#7 (Outfield v Catcher and SS) – Our outfield last year was almost historically bad with Long, Singleton, and Dye posted OPS+ of 83, 75, and 41 respectively while Kielty and Kotsay put up 98 and 97, basically league average numbers. Kielty doesnÂ’t have much of a history, but Beane likes him and that’s just about enough for me. Especially since he will be battling with Byrnesy for playing time, I’d expect tremendous improvement in LF. I think a full season of the 113 OPS+ Byrnes posted last year would out of left field is entirely realistic, which would result in about 20 win shares. If Kotsay simply plays like he did last year, which was about 20-25 OPS+ points below his past two seasons, he would put up about 18 win shares, playing full time and, probably 22-23 if he bounces back from his injuries.

Then there is right field. All accounts are that Dye is looking and feeling great so far this spring. If it all comes together, he could put up Garret Anderson-like numbers, resulting in about 25 win shares. If it all falls apart, he wonÂ’t play too much and his ABs will be grabbed up by Kielty/Byrnes and Billy Mac, probably resulting in 13-15 win shares from the position.

Last year’s outfield posted a total of about 42 win shares. I see this year’s outfield offering 51 at the low end and 68 at the high end, resulting in an increase of between 3 and 9 wins. One note, my estimates lean heavily on a very strong defensive showing. These players are all very good to excellent defensive players. With Mike Cameron in the NL, a full season of Kotsay’s defensive performance from last year would have netted him the most defensive win shares of any AL center fielder. If the lineup works out like planned and no one regresses terribly on defense, these guys should put up 15-18 defensive win shares, easily leading the AL. So realize that the incredible improvement I’m expecting in our OF won’t completely show up in the stats.

I’m fine with letting Hernandez go, I think weÂ’d have lost most of his production even if he stayed. Its hard to say what kind of O we're going to get behind the plate. If Miller plays, it will most likely be next to none . . . however, Melhuse has earned the shot to get some serious PT, so Miller shouldn't be playing more than 60-65% of them time. Maybe the extra rest will allow him to come close to being an average major league hitter. No statistical analysis supports this idea, but, anyway, here's hoping.

Melhuse can flat our rake. He can hit for average, he can hit for power, he has a good eye, and his D isn't bad. It isn't good, but it isn't bad (Prospectus has him as 0, ie neutral, defensively). If he's half as good as last year, offensively, his VORP would be just about the same as Ramon's last year.

I'd guess that Miller gets about 60% of the PT, and they combine for a VORP of about 10-12, costing the team about 12 runs.

Finally, shortstop. Tejada posted a VORP of 43.3 last year. PECOTA is actually incredibly optimistic on Crosby. It predicts a VORP of 18.1, with only 291 ABs. A full season of this, costs the A's only about 6 runs after the loss of Tejada. I find it hard to be this optimistic, but he's been looking great. I think a loss of 12 runs is probably more realistic.

#8 (Durazo) – Doublin’ Durazo . . . What troubles me about him is that his double rate didn’t increase last year to account for his drop in homeruns. His k/bb improved slightly, so thatÂ’s a good sign. Perhaps “Holy Grail” was a bit too much, but the 119 OPS+ he posted last year was still very good. Any improvement here is just gravy.

#9 (Scoring) – Can we score enough runs?
The A's allowed 643 runs last year. I think we'll probably stay about the same. Slight uptick in the rotation, slight drop in the 'pen, overall, about the same. Well, we won 96 games, but the Pythagorean method indicates we should have only won 95, which is what BB aims for anyway. So, conveniently, it would seem that the A's need to score about the same amount of runs as last season. A couple extra runs wouldn't hurt, though. The dropoff at catcher and SS shouldn't be too severe. Barring major injury, I couldn't imagine the outfield, Durazo, Chavez, and maybe Hatteberg not making up for the losses.

Also, the offense will be much more balanced, top to bottom, instead of relying on Chavy and Miggy, which, I believe bodes well for our postseason chances.


Prediction:
We'll be a 98 win team . . . but our tough schedule will garner 95 wins. Seattle win win 85, Anaheim 92, and Texas will win at les 6 or 7 . . . okay, more like 65-70. Boston, Anaheim, and Toronto will be in a tight race for the Wild Card.