(b)A's(eball)

An ode to all that is good and pure in the world of A's baseball. featuring Devo, Jayho, and Khai

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Location: Sacramento, CA, United States

Friday, May 21, 2004

Chavy is not killing us in the 3 hole - he's really playng just fine. At some point in the next month or so he'll go on a big hot streak and pick his overall numbers up to where we expect them to be - but an .820+ ops from a guy who hasn't gotten hot yet is great. The guy is on a pace for 93 RBIs (with #1 and 2 hitters who have slumped most of the early going) - - which means nothing about his talent - - but does indicate that he has produced in RBI situations.

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Great game tonight for Muldy . . . following a great game last night by Huddy . . . here's hoping for a great game tomorrow from Barry.

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This just in, the A's are third in the AL in jacks - with 54 (Rangers 58, Chicago 56) - we're also 4th in walks. Billy Beane must be having a perpetual orgasm. We've also allowed the 2nd fewest walks and the third fewest jacks. Moneyball baby!

Tuesday, May 18, 2004

* Wow, perfection - here's an e-tip of the cap to The Unit. That was one hell of a game. He's old, but, when healthy, there still isn't anyone better.

* Ichiro isn't regressing, his rookie year was just a fluke and he's off to a slow start this year. By the break is numbers will be right in like with '02 and '03, he's just pressing too much right now.

Players like him have a tendency to do that. He plays the game differently from everyone else, so it took pitchers a while to learn how to pitch to him, just like with many rookie, except he was better because he had already played so many years of major league ball.

Sunday, May 16, 2004

Ok, a little behind . . . but is this not indisputable evidence that Billy Beane is the best salesman ever?

Take my backup middle infielder who I recently demoted to AAA because he was batting .091, who has a career .228 average, and who hasn't batted about .205 since 2001.

If I'm BB, I'd pay a team to take him, just so I don't have to pay his salary. Billy didn't see it that way. He got cash and a player for Menechino.

Look at it this way, Toronto paid Billy for the honor of disposing of his trash.

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Its true, Chavy is only batting .237, but he's tied for 3rd in the AL in walks. He's also only 2 jacks behind ML Leader, Steve Finley. The odd thing is his absolute lack of doubles. He has 2 on the year. Of the top 40 homerun hitters, thus far, only Hee Sop Choi has fewer (with 0 ?!?).

So do we follow the conventional logic that doubles=future homeruns? Assuming that he's getting a little lucky and that half of those jacks aren't going to make it into the seats the rest of the way?

Do we flip that and assume, that when he locks in, he'll keep knocking them out, its the tougher pitches, that he's taking now, but used to be hitting hard, just not hard enough, into the gaps for doubles?

I think there might be something to this. Of the guys with at least 10 jacks (16 players total), the top 3 guys in walks - Bonds, Dunn, and Chavy - are all among the bottom 5 in doubles. The other two are Steve Finley - who is almost unquestionably an example of the first explanation - and Miguel Cabrera - who probably is also.

So where does he go from here? Well, I'm betting he finishes the season with more than 9 doubles, but I'm not betting he doesn't keep up his 40+ hr pace. Unless he changes his approach and reverts to his free swinging ways, the doubles probably will fall off from past years, down to the 25 or so range. I have him finishing with a .275 avg .523 slg and a .379 obp - and an MVP award.

Monday, May 10, 2004

Mario Mendoza, watch out, here comes Franky Menechino!!!

Mario Mendoza, is, of course, the brilliant gloveman for whom the Mendoza line was named. He played for Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Texas during his 9 year career, batting above .200 five times and blow "the Mendoza Line" four times. He had four career homeruns and stole twelve bases. He also posted a less than stellar 4/1 k/bb rate. His best season with the bat was 1980, when he batted .245 with two homeruns, three triples, and six doubles to go with 16 walks. His career batting average was .215.

Frank Menechino is a less than stellar gloveman, though certainly good enough, who has batted .185 over the last three seasons. Of course he does offer something in the way of power and patience, with five homeruns and a respectable 40 walks over that period.

This year, of course, he has 3 hits in 33 at bats, for a .091 batting average, giving rise to the new term, "The Menechino Line." Of course, it will be quite a feat if Franky manages to play the entire year while maintaining this unfortunate distinction in futility . . . but, just for fun, I would like to point out, that he's struck out more often than he's hit the ball in the air. (8 k to 6 fb) He's also seeing the fewest pitches of any season in his career (though a still respectable 3.77).

Remember, you read it here first: .100 - the Menechino Line.

Sunday, May 09, 2004

Wow, gotta say, Jayho, you don't seem to be much of a fan of Ken Macha.

I've questioned a lot of his decisions lately too, like why not let Art close out an easy one today, when Mulder had already thrown over 100 pitches and we have tomorrow off.

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Let me talk about the Peterson affect for a second.

The profound differences in performance you see by simply comparing the Mets and A's pitchers pre and post Macha seem like they're probably mostly the result of small sample sizes.

Take Huddy, for instance. If you throw out his one game in Tampa, on turf, which can cause problems for an extreme groundballer, like him, his era is 2.58. He certainly didn't have any problems yesterday against Minnesota.

Mulder, also, if you ignore his starts against the Yanks, his era is 2.33.

Zito has pretty much just blown, but many of us have seen this coming for years, what with his declining k/bb and all. Whats interesting is that his k/bb improved dramatically this year . . . the problem is mostly that he's given up 8 homeruns in his last 3 starts.

Glavine had a 2.59 era last April and a 0.89 in April '02. Both eras inflated significantly the rest of the way.

Its way too early to find any real statisticaly trends, but there are plenty of reasons to believe the current numbers don't accurately represent their longterm value.

Friday, May 07, 2004

"I'm a traditionalist," said Bud Selig. "The problem in sports marketing, particularly in baseball, is you're always walking a very sensitive line. Nobody loves tradition and history as much as I do."

I agree, with good 'ol Bud (shocking as it may be). There is a very sensitive line. For better or for worse, marketing is a part of sports and it ain't going nowhere. Its okay, though. We can deal with it. It doesn't diminish from the integrity of the game when local businesses pay to support little league fields - and, in exchange, are allowed to put their sign on the outfield wall. I certainly have no problem with that and I wouldn't imagine that too many people do.

But, like I said, there is a line where it ceases to be acceptable. Bud seems to think this line is sort of vague or debatable. I think its very, very clear. It is the warning track, plain and simple. Once the field starts, only baseball is allowed. I mean that, only baseball, no friggin' football allowed on my baseball field.

But, nearly as important, no advertising, either. You can put them on the walls, you can put them in the stands, you can put them in the name of the park, and I wouldn't care ... too much, I'm not really a fan of naming the parks after companies, but, if tastefully done, its not a problem.

Good NamesBad Names
PacBell
Minute Maid
Coors
Busch
Miller
Bank One (the BOB)
SBC
Enron
PNC
Network Associates
Tropicana
Safeco
Comerica


For the record, I'm still not sure how I feel about Petco.

So, I guess beer companies are pretty safe bets and technology companies are pretty bad bets. I do think, however, that no stadium should be allowed to sell its name for less than 10 year stints and I'd really prefer 20.

Anyhow, back to the subject at hand, its what happens on the field that matters. Contract negotiations, advertising deals, labor disputes, etc. cannot take away from the game of baseball as long as they don't affect what happens on the field. Above all else, the bats, the balls, the bases, the gloves, and the hat are sacred and should never be touched by dollar signs. The only green that should ever touch them is the grass.

Baseball is good. Baseball is pure. Money is not good for the game, but until it changes the fundamentals of what happens between those white lines. Baseball is baseball. All that other stuff is just good 'ol American noise.

Thursday, May 06, 2004

Hey, great game tonight. The 'pen pulled one out, the times, they are a changin' . . . I hope . . .

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Great little look at the Peterson effect at Baseball Told the Right Way. The numbers don't mean a whole lot yet, way too early, but the results are interesting so far. I'll take a closer look shortly.

Tuesday, May 04, 2004

Hey, the pitching will come around, no question . . . but our offense has looked good, thats whats important.

Monday, May 03, 2004

Sorry, I had a busy weekend, I was getting my motorcycle license. I'll be buying a bike in the next few days. I'm leaning towards a Honda Shadow VLX.

May is here, thankfully. Our boys really can't be trusted in April.

Tejada batted .161 last April
Hudson had a 3.67 era (sure, its good, but it was a run higher than his full season)
Mulder had a 4.91 in '02

Those things happen, its no big deal, they'll adjust and come around.

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Ruby had a great weekend, 5/12 w/ 3 jacks
Oddly, Mr. OBP hasn't drawn a walk in the last 9 games . . . he is 10/34 with 5 of his 6 extra base hits during that span with 7 strikeouts, however. Before that he was 10/39 with 1 extra base hit and 12 strikeouts. Could he have made some changes, adjusted, and be ready to contribute?
Perhaps the lack of walks is just him realizing that pitches are throwing him strikes because they aren't afraid of him, and the walks will come once pitchers start trying a little harder to miss his bat.

As John Gizzi points out in his ESPN column, Ruby has a history of being streaky, and he theorizes that he's unlikely to change that at the age of 29. While its true that its hard for old dogs to learn new tricks, you can't forget that last year was his first full season and, I believe, consistency is all about learning how pitchers are going to try to deal with you. Young players are more prone to slumps because they haven't seen most of the tricks that pitchers are going to come up with to try to get them out. More experienced players have seen most of the pitchers and most of their ideas and its more about pure talent.

That being said, I can't be too optimistic about Ruby.